CMBS Distress Is Following the Maturity Calendar, and Full Buildings Are No Longer Safe
CRED iQ data shows 93% of October’s newly distressed CMBS debt was tied to maturing loans, and the strain is moving from New York to Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.
CMBS Distress Is Following the Maturity Calendar, and Full Buildings Are No Longer Safe
CRED iQ data shows 93% of October’s newly distressed CMBS debt was tied to maturing loans, and the strain is moving from New York to Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston.
Apartment Openings Are Falling Fastest in the South, and the Next Cycle Will Be Won on Land
RentCafe expects 27% fewer apartment openings in 2026, with Dallas and Austin falling hardest, and with construction running 50% below its peak, the real scarcity ahead is entitled, buildable land.
A Quarter of Texas Apartment Floaters Can’t Cover Their Debt, and Rate Relief Isn’t Coming
Trepp data shows $3.04 billion of performing floating-rate Agency apartment loans in Texas below 1.0x coverage, and with the Fed leaning toward a hike, the 2021 and 2022 vintage faces a refinance reckoning.
The Affordability Gap Is Widest in the Mountains, and Raises Will Not Close It
New Census data shows incomes rose 3.8% last year, yet no state is affordable at the median, and the widest gaps sit in Montana and the mountain West.
Insurance Is Eating the Price Cut, and the Monthly Payment Is the Only Number That Matters
Realtor.com data shows list prices down for 11 straight months, but record insurance costs are taking back much of the savings, and the gap falls hardest on the lower end of the market.
The Data Center Boom Made Storage Yards Scarce, and the Permit Is the Asset
Outdoor storage rents have surged as AI campuses need staging space, but the real value sits in scarce zoning approvals, and rents set at the build peak may not last.
Fresno Is California’s Release Valve, and the Discount Is Already Shrinking
Coastal buyers and employers are moving to the Central Valley for cheaper land and faster approvals, but rising prices, high unemployment and higher rates will test how long that edge lasts.
COPA Puts Nonprofits First in Line, but Distressed Buildings Need Capital More Than Time
New York’s new purchase right will slow sales of the city’s most troubled apartment buildings, and whether it preserves housing depends on rehab capital the law itself does not provide.
The Manufactured Housing Order Makes the Box Cheaper, Not the Lot
The White House’s new executive order targets factory built homes and mortgage costs, but land and local approvals still decide whether any of it gets built.
The Investor Cap Won’t Free Up Many Homes, but It Will Send Capital to Land
Treasury’s proposed rule bars large investors from buying more existing homes, but its carve-outs for new construction and heavy renovation will push that capital toward entitled land and older housing stock.
Retail Construction Starts Hit a Decade Low, and Scarcity Is Now the Business Plan
CoStar data show retail starts fell to 7.7 million square feet in the third quarter, a decade low that rewards owners of existing centers and tells developers new space will not pencil until rents rise.
Detroit’s $1 Billion Riverfront Gift Shows What Turnaround Markets Really Lack
Dan Gilbert’s nonprofit pledge for the Renaissance Center and East Riverfront shows that in turnaround markets, the missing pieces are patient capital and public financing, not ideas.
Builders Are Permitting but Not Finishing, and the Cost Clock Keeps Running
September data shows 1.4 million permits against 1.19 million completions, while JLL says 3% to 6% annual cost growth is the new baseline, which makes waiting for lower rates an expensive bet.
New York’s 99-Unit Ceiling Shows the Tax Code Is Now the Architect
New York’s latest 485-x filings show developers stopping one apartment short of stricter rules, and the math explains why the city keeps getting smaller buildings than its land can hold.
Florida’s Homestead Tax Cut Doesn’t Make Housing Cheaper, It Moves the Bill
Amendment 3 would cut bills for established Florida owners, but the cost lands on renters, newcomers, and local services in a state already losing its migration edge.
Millionaires Are Renting by Choice, and That Tells Us Who the Market Serves
RentCafe counts more than three times as many million dollar renter households as in 2020, a small group that explains a lot about optionality, capital, and a split housing market.
Faster Permits and Robot Factories Help, but the Lot Is Still the Bottleneck
Bloomberg's grants to 30 city halls and D.R. Horton's robotics deal each attack a real cost of building a home, and both leave the hardest one untouched.
Power Is the New Zoning, and Most Land Underwriting Has Not Caught Up
Site selectors now rank electricity above labor, and a grid emergency covering 67 million people shows why the megawatt has become the scarcest input in land.
Texas Built Its Way to a Buyer’s Market, and the Accidental Landlords Are the Fine Print
Bidding wars have mostly vanished across Texas while Houston leads the nation in sellers turning landlord, a split that rewards supply and punishes the 2022 to 2024 buyer.
The Bridge Loan Bet Is on the Wrong Side of Higher for Longer
Green Street shows the CRE price recovery stalling as the 10-year holds above 5%, while owners keep rolling floating rate bridge debt and betting that rates blink first.
The Rent Squeeze Is Climbing the Income Ladder Just as the Supply Cushion Runs Out
Middle-income renters are falling behind even after three years of softer asking rents, and the apartment supply wave that made those rents possible is now fading.
The Next Starter Homes Are Hiding on Golf Courses and Small Lots
A city golf course sale in Virginia Beach and a lot size ballot question in Massachusetts show that the housing shortage is a land and entitlement problem first.
Seven Percent Mortgages Are Back, and the Supply Problem Is Next
A quarter point weekly jump in the 30-year rate is a buyer problem this fall, but the bigger cost of higher long rates is the housing that never gets financed.
Why We’re Buying Land, Not Building, in This Part of the Cycle
Kaufman & Company’s President & CIO on why the platform is running its land pipeline harder than its construction pipeline right now, and what has to change before that flips back.
What Lean Six Sigma Taught Me About Modular Construction Timelines
Oldivai Capital’s COO, a Lean Six Sigma Black Belt, on applying manufacturing-floor discipline to a modular housing schedule, and where most operators still let variance creep back in.
The Entitlement Process Is the Real Underwriting: What Kills Deals in Zoning
Kaufman & Company’s General Counsel on why the spreadsheet is the easy part, and the planning department is where most deals actually live or die.
Private Credit Has Quietly Replaced the Regional Bank for Mid-Market Developers
Kaufman & Company’s CFO on a structural shift in construction and bridge financing that most sponsors under $50M in annual originations haven’t fully priced in yet.
What Emergency Medicine Taught Me About Underwriting Workforce Housing
Oldivai Capital’s CEO, a practicing emergency physician, on the diagnostic discipline he brought from the ER into real estate, and why housing instability shows up in his patients before it shows up in any market report.
The Case for Fewer, Larger Positions: How We Think About Concentration Risk
Diversification is supposed to be free risk reduction. Kaufman & Company’s CIO argues that past a certain point, it just means owning more deals you understand less well.
Ground Leases Are Having a Moment, and Most Sponsors Don’t Understand Why
Kaufman & Company’s General Counsel on the structural reasons ground leases are reappearing in deals that wouldn’t have considered them five years ago.
On-the-ground investor reporting curated from KeyCrew’s real estate desk, market by market, deal by deal.
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Deal announcements, launches, and groundbreakings across the Kaufman & Company platform and the wider industry.
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LandBriefing Hot Spots
A weekly read from LandBriefing, Daniel Kaufman’s National Land Opportunity Watchlist published by Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting, 14 metros scored for land-investment opportunity. Hover a marker for the read, click through for the full brief.
LandBriefing Mountain Watch
A monthly read from LandBriefing, Daniel Kaufman’s tracker for land and housing opportunity across America’s mountain resort and gateway towns, scored by asset class — affordable housing, market rate, luxury, land, commercial, and hospitality. Hover a marker for the read, click through for the full breakdown.
25+ Years, $2B+ Deployed, One Discipline: Underwrite the Downside First
Daniel began his career building, lending, and investing in Detroit in 1992. He now leads Kaufman & Company, a permanent-capital holding company spanning ten operating companies, from workforce housing to data-center infrastructure, and writes on real estate and capital markets for the Journal, Substack, and Medium.
Perspectives, deal news, and investor intel, twice a week, no fluff.